Dr Olufemi Adelusi

The worsening situation of insecurity in Nigeria has brought two options disintegration or true federalism. Nigeria has been at a similar juncture many times in her existence. You often hear that the Abacha administration was the last Head of State of a federation called Nigeria. At another time, it was the President Obasanjo administration, later it was the turn of President Jonathan and now the clouds are seen as dark with the level of insecurity pervasive. Talks are now about President Buhari been probably, the very last President of a united Nigeria. Institutional analysis comes to mind. By institutional analysis, what readily comes to mind are, the National Assembly, the Courts, the Federal System, the Press, and the Civil Service. Nigeria has her share of various shades of insecurity, ranging from banditry, stealing, looting, organized crimes, kidnappings, and thuggery to ethnic herdsmen killings and kidnappings. There were two poles of worse insecurity shaking Nigeria between 2007 and 2015. In the North East, there were the local religious fanatics termed the Boko Harams, growing between 2007 and 2015; in the South -South area, there were prevalent kidnappings of white engineers from their working sites. These victims were initially white engineers. This situation festered a little longer till 2019 when the most dangerous angle became introduced. There were coordinated massive movements of initially jobless youths from the Northern States to the Southern States. When accosted by security checks on their routes, the explanation was that they are helping hands on the farms!!! Without being vigilant, these would be herdsmen with guns -killers were allowed free access to the Southern States. The insecurity became worsened by the time these so-called Fulani Herdsmen wielding AK47 rifles decided to force their ways to natural forests in their localities, raping and killing, wives and husbands along the way. Every State became terrorised by these AK 47 wielding Fulani herdsmen. Certain questions arise. In what ways were governance at all levels of government, Local, State, and Federal deeply affected by the pervading insecurity of human lives and properties? Has the ethnic group affiliation -Fulani of Nigeria’s President a major contribution to his inept management of Nigeria’s ethnic diversity? And finally, is Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution adequate to firmly rein in all the forces of disintegration apparent in Nigeria? To analyze these, this study has been organized into four sections, namely, Section one is the Abstract, Section Two is the Introduction, Section Three is Military versus Political, and True Federalism Options to finding Solutions., Section Four, is Conclusion. In this study, an institutional approach has been privileged for our analysis.

III- MILITARY VERSUS POLITICAL AND TRUE FEDERALISM INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS

When we talk of the institutional approach, what will readily come to mind are the National Assembly, the Courts, the Federal System, the Press, and the Civil Service. Yes, these represent the main institutions of the State. Talking about the worsening insecurity in Nigeria, in one of Nigeria’s President Muhammed Buhari’s answers to about two State Governors complaining about insecurity in their States, he was reported to have answered them with the question, what have you done with your Vigilantes, Locally organized Street to Street security arrangements? In short, his idea is that each level of governance, Federal, State, and Local governments is required to take charge or better still contribute to the security of Nigeria. To his credit, he has signed enabled orders permitting direct Payment to the Local Governments as a level of government. Councillors of Local Government are singing his praise now. The flak to this is that there is no legal constitutional backing to State or Local government Police. This lacuna has punctured the efforts of independent actions at arresting arms toting herdsmen kidnapping, raping, and killing people.

In what ways were governance at all levels of government, Local, State, and Federal deeply affected by the pervading insecurity to human lives and properties? Has the ethnic group affiliation -Fulani of Nigeria’s President a major contribution to his inept management of Nigeria’s ethnic diversity? And finally, is Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution adequate to firmly rein in all the forces of disintegration apparent in Nigeria? The use of military force to confront Boko Haram insurgents, that have been harassing, killing, and kidnapping people has been an aspect of the governmental engagement. A non-governmental initiative by a popular cleric proposing peaceful engagement and appeasement strategy with the Boko Harams combatants has polarised observers.

An Emir of Muri, an emirate council of importance in the Northern part of Nigeria was reported to have warned the so-called Foreign Fulani Herdsmen and Bandits roaming about the location. He vowed to face them ruthlessly if they cross their boundaries. Here is a Fulani man who acknowledged the fact that those dangerous Fulani herdsmen and bandits could be indeed outsiders. He summed up the courage to organise community affront to the foreigners. Certainly, if every local community could be bold to organize itself with some support from their local council and State government, it will checkmate these marauders.

It is important at this juncture to say that these foreign Fulani herdsmen and bandits could have been invited and motivated to invade Nigeria just in the form of foreign legions by a combination of a local Politician and foreign backers hoping for political gain. The embittered loser in the 2019 Presidential Elections is a Fulani man. His backers hoping for economic and commercial gain from his probable win are the French companies in the oil and gas sector! Solving Nigeria’s banditry and kidnaping can only respond to a combination of dialogue, intelligence gathering, and social engineering backed up by military presence.

True Federalism in which the six federated zones become agreed and recognized units for the federal system will best help the unity in diversity possibility. For our analysis to take a cue from the current agitations for self-governance and separation, the southwest zone mainly constituted by the Yoruba unless otherwise amended could become Oduduwa State, the southeast zone mainly habited by the Igbo now becomes the Biafra State, and other Zones after discussions and acceptance could become the other States. The current units called States could still function but with coordination from the zonal quarters. The Police become Federal, Zonal and States organisations controlled by authorities at those levels. Fiscal federalism must be subject to agreement and readjustments. The Political Institutions will now become highly modified. The Federal may retain mainly the Senate with equal representation of the Zones. The Zones with the House of Assemblies for the zones. A very important consequence of these changes in Nigeria’s insecurity is that there will be more enlistment of people in the different levels of policing. Attention would now be given to local policing.

IV- CONCLUSION

More Nigerians are understanding that the facts of insecurity in Nigeria cannot be resolved by two choices; of disintegration or True Federalism. Many ethnic groups in Nigeria are better off inside a federation called Nigeria than become another micro ethnic group under another Major ethnic group dominated micro-Country.

In essence, the worsening insecurity situation in Nigeria has become over exaggerated by the Social Media. The various giant infrastructure gaps that the current administration has been filling, the focused redirection of Nigeria’s priorities as well as repositioning of the various Federal Ministries and Institutions are left to be dwarfed by the negative Social Media narratives. Even the Economist journal of the UK has added itself to the cacophony of wailers condemning the leadership that has not been found corrupt but refused to allow foreigners to plunder Nigeria’s economy under his supervision. Oh, the insecurity situation in Nigeria has come to overshadow all the giant strides been undertaking by the President M. Buhari. Whoever has imported foreign Fulani herdsmen and bandits among the Nigeria’s Northern States governors in collaboration with failed Fulani Presidential candidate and his foreign financial interests backing him. One of the herdsmen caught vowed over his dead body if he was not commissioned by government official from one of the Northern States. Trailers loaded with so-called unemployed youths were intercepted several times from the North going to the South of Nigeria. These arrests took place long time before the incidences of the so-called herdsmen and bandits. A pointer to a fact that a coordinated action must have been taken to bring these people in trailer loads. There were coordinated massive movements of initially jobless youths from the Northern States to the Southern States. When accosted by security checks on their routes, the explanation was that they are helping hands on the farms!!! Without being vigilant, these would be herdsmen with guns -killers were allowed free access to the Southern States

Finally, Solving Nigeria’s banditry and kidnaping can only respond to a combination of dialogue, intelligence gathering, and social engineering backed up by military presence. There are some questions that are not easily dismissible; why is it difficult for President M. Buhari to respond to the cries of Nigerians from all 6 geopolitical zones about the rampaging, kidnapping. raping and killing by imported Fulani herdsmen and bandits? Why are the Directorate of Secret Services (DSS), the Nigerian Police establishment, and the three armed services, Army, Navy, and Air forces seemly deaf and dumb to reports of all the gross insecurity around them? Finally, Can President Buhari and his close advisers, the All Progressive Party his ruling claim not to understand that all the developmental strides being taken by the administration in terms of infrastructure, and others are being overshadowed by negative vibes, evil thought and talks generating inter and intra ethnic tensions pulling Nigeria to disintegration?

II- INTRODUCTION

The worsening situation of insecurity in Nigeria has brought two options disintegration or true federalism. Nigeria has been at a similar juncture many times in her existence. You often hear that then Abacha administration was the last Head of State of a federation called Nigeria. At another time, it was the President Obasanjo administration, later it was the turn of President Jonathan and now the clouds are seen as dark with the level of insecurity pervasive. Talks are now about President Buhari been probably, the very last President of a united Nigeria. The institutional analysis comes to mind. By institutional analysis, what readily comes to mind are, the National Assembly, the Courts, the Federal System, the Press and the Civil Service. Nigeria has her share of various shades of insecurity, ranging from banditry, stealing, looting, organized crimes, kidnappings, and thuggery to ethnic herdsmen killings and kidnappings. There were two poles of worse insecurity shaking Nigeria between 2007 and 2015. In the North East, there were the local religious fanatics termed the Boko Harams, growing between 2007 and 2015; in the South-South area, there were prevalent kidnappings of white engineers from their working sites. These victims were initially white engineers. This situation festered a little longer till 2019 when the most dangerous angle became introduced. There were coordinated massive movements of initially jobless youths from the Northern States to the Southern States. When accosted by security checks on their routes, the explanation was that they are helping hands on the farms!!! Without being vigilant, these would be herdsmen with guns -killers were allowed free access to the Southern States. The insecurity became worsened by the time these so-called Fulani Herdsmen wielding AK47 rifles decided to force their ways to natural forests in their localities, raping and killing, wives and husbands along the way. Every State became terrorized by these AK 47 wielding Fulani herdsmen. Certain questions arise. In what ways were governance at all levels of government, Local, State, and Federal deeply affected by the pervading insecurity of human lives and properties? Has the ethnic group affiliation -Fulani of Nigeria’s President a major contribution to his inept management of Nigeria’s ethnic diversity? And finally, is Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution adequate to firmly rein in all the forces of disintegration apparent in Nigeria? To analyse these, this study has been organized into four sections, namely, Section one is the Abstract, Section Two is the Introduction, Section Three is Military versus Political, and True Federalism Options to finding Solutions., Section Four, is Conclusion. In this study, an institutional approach has been privileged for our analysis.

III- MILITARY VERSUS POLITICAL AND TRUE FEDERALISM INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS

When we talk of the institutional approach, what will readily come to mind are the National Assembly, the Courts, the Federal System, the Press, and the Civil Service. Yes, these represent the main institutions of the State. Talking about the worsening insecurity in Nigeria, in one of Nigeria’s President Muhammed Buhari’s answers to about two State Governors complaining about insecurity in their States, he was reported to have answered them with the question, what have you done with your Vigilantes, Locally organized Street to Street security arrangements? In short, his idea is that each level of governance, Federal, State, and Local governments is required to take charge or better still contribute to the security of Nigeria. To his credit, he has signed enabled orders permitting direct Payment to the Local Governments as a level of government. Councilors of Local Government are singing his praise now. The flak to this is that there is no legal constitutional backing to State or Local government Police. This lacuna has punctured the efforts of independent actions at arresting arms toting herdsmen kidnapping, raping, and killing people.

In what ways were governance at all levels of government, Local, State, and Federal deeply affected by the pervading insecurity of human lives and properties? Has the ethnic group affiliation -Fulani of Nigeria’s President a major contribution to his inept management of Nigeria’s ethnic diversity? And finally, is Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution adequate to firmly rein in all the forces of disintegration apparent in Nigeria? The use of military force to confront Boko Haram insurgents, that have been harassing, killing, and kidnapping people has been an aspect of the governmental engagement. A non-governmental initiative by a popular cleric proposing peaceful engagement and appeasement strategy with the Boko Harams combatants, has polarised observers.

An Emir of Muri, an emirate council of importance in the Northern part of Nigeria was reported to have warned the so-called Foreign Fulani Herdsmen and Bandits roaming about the location. He vowed to face them ruthlessly if they cross their boundaries. Here is a Fulani man who acknowledged the fact that those dangerous Fulani herdsmen and bandits could be indeed outsiders. He summed up the courage to organize community affront to the foreigners. Certainly, if every local community could be bold to organize itself with some support with their local council and State government, it will checkmate these marauders.

It is important at this juncture to say that these foreign Fulani herdsmen and bandits could have been invited and motivated to invade Nigeria just in the form of foreign legions by a combination of a local Politician and foreign backers hoping for political gain. The embittered looser in the 2019 Presidential Elections is a Fulani man. His backers hoping for economic and commercial gain from his probable win are the French companies in the oil and gas sector! Solving Nigeria’s banditry and kidnaping can only respond to a combination of dialogue, intelligence gathering, and social engineering backed up by military presence.

True Federalism in which the six federated zones become agreed and recognized units for the federal system will best help the unity in diversity possibility. For our analysis to take a cue from the current agitations for self-governance and separation, the southwest zone mainly constituted by the Yoruba unless otherwise amended could become Oduduwa State, the southeast zone mainly habited by the Igbo now becomes the Biafra State, and other Zones after discussions and acceptance could become the other States. The current units called States could still function but with coordination from the zonal quarters. The Police becomes Federal, Zonal, and States organisations controlled by authorities at those levels. Fiscal federalism must be subject to agreement and readjustments. The Political Institutions will now become highly modified. The Federal may retain mainly the Senate with equal representation of the Zones. The Zones with the House of Assemblies for the zones. A very important consequence of these changes in Nigeria’s insecurity is that there will be more enlistment of people in the different levels of policing. Attention would now be given to local policing.

IV- CONCLUSION

More Nigerians are understanding that the facts of insecurity in Nigeria cannot be resolved by two choices; disintegration or True Federalism. Many ethnic groups in Nigeria are better off inside a federation called Nigeria than become another micro ethnic group under another Major ethnic group dominated micro-Country.

In essence, the worsening insecurity situation in Nigeria has become over exaggerated by the Social Media. The various giant infrastructure gaps that the current administration has been filling, the focused re direction of Nigeria’s priorities as well as repositioning of the various Federal Ministries and Institutions are left to be dwarfed by the negative Social Media narratives. Even the Economist journal of the UK has added itself to the cacophony of wailers condemning the leadership that has not been found corrupt but refused to allow foreigners to plunder Nigeria’s economy under his supervision. Oh, the insecurity situation in Nigeria has come to overshadow all the giant strides being undertaken by President M. Buhari. Whoever has imported foreign Fulani herdsmen and bandits among the Nigeria’s Northern States governors in collaboration with failed Fulani Presidential candidate and his foreign financial interests backing him. One of the herdsmen caught vowed over his dead body if he was not commissioned by government official from one of the Northern States. Trailers loaded with so called unemployed youths were intercepted several times from the North going to the South of Nigeria. These arrests took place long time before the incidences of the so-called herdsmen and bandits. A pointer to a fact that a coordinated action must have been taken to bring these people in trailer loads. There were coordinated massive movements of initially jobless youths from the Northern States to the Southern States. When accosted by security checks on their routes, the explanation was that they are helping hands on the farms!!! Without being vigilant, these would be herdsmen with guns -killers were allowed free access to the Southern States

Finally, Solving Nigeria’s banditry and kidnaping can only respond to a combination of dialogue, intelligence gathering, and social engineering backed up by military presence. There are some questions that are not easily dismissible; why is it difficult for President M. Buhari to respond to the cries of Nigerians from all 6 geopolitical zones about the rampaging, kidnapping. raping and killing by imported Fulani herdsmen and bandits? Why are the Directorate of Secret Services (DSS), the Nigerian Police establishment, and the three armed services, Army, Navy and Air forces seemly deaf and dumb to reports of all the gross insecurity around them? Finally, Can President Buhari and his close advisers, the All Progressive Party his ruling claim not to understand that all the developmental strides being taken by the administration in terms of infrastructure, and others are being overshadowed by negative vibes, evil thought and talks generating inter and intra ethnic tensions pulling Nigeria to disintegration?

RUSSIAN SUBTERFUGE AND THE INVASION OF UKRAINE- CONSEQUENCE OF REDUCTION IN US GLOBAL INFLUENCE.

Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

London. United Kingdom

patrickadelusi@jjassociates.org.uk http://www.olufemiadelusi.blogspot.co.uk/

www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-olufemi-adelusi-a2139a76

I- ABSTRACT

The world woke up to the multidimensional invasion of Ukraine by Russia on the 24^th of February 2022. Surprised only a few of us!!! Shared intelligence by the US with the ‘5 eyes’ but made public to expose Russian intentions; gave detailed step by step plan by Russian President Putin. A flurry of diplomatic efforts to dissuade Russia from the intended invasion was carried out by the UK, France, Germany, EU, and the US among others. Putin lied to these callers on him. He said he had no intention of invading Ukraine. He had gone against his promise. The methodology that suits this study is the Systems Analysis. The US political system threw up ex-President Donald Trump. A character that is anybody but a good representative of the Political Culture, Social and Economic System of the US. Reports established by the Executive and Congressional Committees of the US have established Russia’s extended help to candidate Donald Trump to win the Presidency of the US. Russia under Putin has been emboldened by the US policy of incremental withdrawal from global theatres of action and responsibilities. With Donald Trump's cozy person-to-person relations with his helper, Russia to the Oval Office in Washington, and his refusal to send US Congress approved Military and other economic assistance to Ukraine in time. Putin’s Russia has decided to fill the vacuum. In this study, an attempt would be made to analyze the Russian subterfuge and her invasion of an independent European country called Ukraine. The remote causes of Russian confidence to dream of recreating a sphere of influence in Europe can be traced first to Donald Trump’s US! Secondly, to Ukraine’s geographic location on the route of the gas pipeline to Europe with the economic cost of $2billion gatekeeping charges by Ukraine from Russia, and Thirdly, attempt to shield probably from the early discovery of the corruption at the Presidency of Russian Federation. A thriving Ukrainian system will probably trigger the pressure of Russians towards a desire to emulate Ukraine. To carry out this analysis, the study has been divided into four sections: namely, First, Abstract, Second, the Introduction, thirdly, Remote and immediate causes of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Fourthly, Conclusion.

II- INTRODUCTION

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on the 24^th of February 2022 after a flurry of diplomatic shuttles around President Putin of Russia by representation from Euro-American governments. The President of the United States had about two or more telephone calls to his counterpart Vlad Putin. US Secretary of State had meetings with the Russian opposite number on many occasions. French President visited Moscow and met President Putin. The UK Secretary for Foreign Affairs Liz Struss met her counterpart Lavrov on more than one occasion. German Chancellor visited President Putin, just mentioning a few of the callers on Russia to allow dialogue to prevail instead of violence. On each occasion, President Putin kept on saying that he had no intention of invading Ukraine!

The technology on point now has laid bare the issues about threats of and issues of war. Russia has been integrated into the world economy. Fear of a hidden enemy against Russia had receded. The cold war paradigms of analysis only serve a historical purpose here. This study will not travel along that route. Russia is the largest among the countries that made up the former Soviet Union followed by Ukraine, has been incorporated by European countries, Canada, and the United States, into the world economy, culture, sports, space, science technological cooperation as well as financial system of the world. In essence, the world outlook of peaceful relations and development encouraged these international system actors mentioned above to focus more on science-driven industrialization and market-driven trade relations. The now to be abandoned Russian gas pipeline to European countries is a great example of such a confident improved relationship.

When Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea, a seaport land part of Ukraine, there was a mooted outcry. This emboldens Russia to continue to stir uprising and rebellion among the majorly Russian ethnic populated South-eastern Ukraine. The amassing of over 175,000 men and weapons along this neighbouring border to Ukraine signaled a threat of invasion of the country by Russia. A flurry of diplomatic efforts to dissuade Russia from the intended invasion was carried out by the UK, France, Germany, EU, and the US among others. Putin lied to these callers on him. He said he had no intention of invading Ukraine. He had gone against his promise. The methodology that suits this study is the Systems Analysis. The US political system threw up ex-President Donald Trump. A character that is anybody but a good representative of the Political Culture, Social and Economic System of the US. Reports established by the Executive and Congressional Committees of the US have established Russia’s extended help to candidate Donald Trump to win the Presidency of the US. Russia under Putin has been emboldened by the US policy of incremental withdrawal from global theatres of action and responsibilities. With Donald Trump's cozy person-to-person relations with his helper, Putin’s Russia to the Oval Office in Washington, and his refusal to send US Congress approved Military and other economic assistance to Ukraine in time. Putin’s Russia has decided to fill the vacuum. In this study, an attempt would be made to analyze the Russian subterfuge and her invasion of an independent European country called Ukraine. The remote causes of Russian confidence, to dream of recreating the sphere of influence in Europe can be traced first to Donald Trump’s US! Secondly, Ukraine’s geographic location on the route of the gas pipeline to Europe with the economic cost of $2billion gatekeeping charges by Ukraine on Russia and Thirdly, attempt to shield probably from the early discovery of the corruption at the Presidency of Russian Federation. A thriving Ukrainian system will probably trigger the pressure of Russians towards a desire to emulate Ukraine. To carry out this analysis, the study has been divided into four sections: namely, First, Abstract, Second, the Introduction, thirdly, Remote and immediate causes of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Fourthly, Conclusion.

III- REMOTE AND IMMEDIATE CAUSES OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE IN 2022

Cold war paradigms of analysis want the world to accept the narrative about the borders drawn between the receding totalitarian remnants of the Soviet Union and the Euro-American systems. No one can deny history. What we have come to live with now since the fall of the Berlin wall in the fall of 1989 is the rules-based international order. The importance of this acceptance of rules-based international order by Russia, China, and India among other States operating in the international system is simply that the ‘bogey of the evil empire’ has receded in the minds of citizens of all countries. International Social, Economic, Cultural, and Political Relations now assume open cordiality and cooperation between Russia, the US, the EU, and other countries of the world. A snippet of Russia’s trade relations shows that ‘Russia’s oil and gas exports last year accounted for almost 40% of the government’s budget’ BCA Research said in a recent note. ’According to Russia’s central bank, crude and product revenue last year amounted to just under $180 billion, while pipeline and LNG shipments of Natural Gas generated close to $62 billion last year’.

One remote cause of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the US’s incremental withdrawal from the international theatres of military engagement and influence. The withdrawal seemed to have started under President Obama. His idea seemed that let the US review and have a change in Military engagement overseas!!! Indeed, to cease to be the ‘policeman’ of the world. A position that upheld international peace in Europe and Asia. Putin’s Russia then calculated that having a pliant US President could hasten that perceived US withdrawal. The US under Donald Trump was anything but coordinated or stable both at home and in its international relations. Trump associated more with dictators and practiced more person-to-person dealings with them. Trump’s meetings with Putin showed that he lacked understanding of the traditions of the US in foreign relations. He openly disgraced US intelligence community!! Putin moved quickly to corner the supposed vacuum left by the US.

Another remote reason for Putin’s invasion lies in the supposedly $2 billion costs to Russia for passing the natural gas pipeline under Ukraine. By merging Ukraine with Russian Federation, the bill will become a nonissue and Russia will have net profits from doing business with Germany and the EU!

The attempt to shield probably the corruption at the Presidency of the Russian Federation from early discovery might constitute another remote cause for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. A thriving Ukrainian system will probably trigger the pressure of Russians towards a desire to emulate Ukraine. There is a democracy with its freedoms operating in the country. That Ukrainians are now used to free press, new trappings of social media, and cultural affinities developing in the country. Russians are not immune to the attractions brought by real democratic openness and commercial relations. Vladimir Putin was once KGB's maximum director/controller, then Russia’s President later her Prime Minister. He later transformed again to be Russian President a second time. He closed open democratic party participation. The young man that challenged him at the polls, he kidnapped him, pumped poisonous substance into his body. He was rushed to Germany just in time, His blood was cleansed of the poison. The young man returned to Russia again to contest the lordship of Putin. He has now been locked behind a cell in Russia now. This illustrates how Putin and those surrounding him are afraid of a breakdown of the Russian centrally controlled economy-driven Political system. The beneficiaries of the system are the corrupt few at the top. Putin has been reported to be in stupendous wealth. He has been observed to have spoken of his preference for a return to the Cold War International system. He has been threatening to put the nuclear arsenal on alert! He has even been saying that the sanctions rained against Russia are declarations of war!

The only perceived immediate cause of Putin’s Russia is Putin’s frozen cold war brain! He has long stayed in power. He was in demand during the ‘cold war’ and since the end of ‘cold war’ where new technology has changed many indices of economic, social, cultural, and military spheres, his influence has started to wane. Ukraine's democratic credentials could be intimidating to a closed economy represented by Russia. Ukraine’s 44 million determined population cannot be but a competitor to Russia.

IV- CONCLUSION

The rules-based international order has served the people of the world. The UN system came alive through the observance of this international order. Russian citizens, Chinese citizens, McDonald's Franchises and other US companies, the EU companies, and the newly completed gas pipelines from Russia to Germany yet to be approved for use are real-life turnaround relations among countries and their citizens before the madness of Putin’s Russia invasion of Ukraine. There is hardly any country existing in the international system that harbours pure ethnic homogeneity. Inherited Borders of countries have been upheld for purpose of Countries' internal administration and peace. Forceful re-drawing of international boundaries is against the ‘rules-based international order’. An act of aggression is committed by any country that has tried to do so.

Russia is not a Superpower. Russia is a pretender to being a Superpower. Putin has been self-seeking. He wants Russia to be placed on the same table as the US. China has more indices of a Superpower than Russia. In the 21^st century, there are more weapons of war with built-in precision. Mass troops are no longer needed to achieve military objectives. Crude demolition of civilians otherwise referred to as soft targets by Russia is an indication of the level of her power status!! If Russia a medium power cannot use precision weapons to make her statement in Ukraine, a country that shares landed borders with her!! Ukraine, an independent country with 44 million determined people should not be dictated to. Hear Putin, ‘military action could only be halted only if Kyiv ceases hostilities and fulfills the well-known demands of Russia’. It is likely that similar India/ Pakistan uneasy relations may soon develop between Russia and Ukraine. Russia can never subjugate Ukraine. It is better for Putin’s Russia to forget recreating the old sphere of influence. It will never happen again! Modern technology has outlined the non-relevance of such strategic thinking. It has just come off the propaganda mill that Putin’s Russia is no longer seeking a regime change in Ukraine. Who will ever believe whatever information comes from Putin’s Russia again? In fact, it is Russia that needs a regime change! Putin has overstayed his welcome. An erratic man Putin as President of Russia is as dangerous as when the US had to contend with Donald Trump. The big difference is that the US Political System checkmated Trump. Citizens are allowed to decide their leaders in free and fair elections at intervals. Even as we are analyzing Putin’s Russian invasion of Ukraine, former twice impeached US President Donald Trump is still deluding himself while misleading the members of US's second most important Political Party with a big lie that he won the 2020 US Presidential elections! He is alive and not hanged!! Can Putin’s Russia allow citizens to have access to real-life streaming of the invasion of Ukraine, on whose behalf the security of Russia is at stake? Closing of Russian electronic and Print media that are not government-controlled and arresting over 3,000 citizens protesting the invasion in more than 30 cities of Russia speaks a lot about Putin’s Russia.

Here comes another cold war period of the international system!!! The UN voting by 141 countries on Russia’s invasion demonstrated a misunderstanding of the issues at stake. Russian propaganda is talking of areas of influence that should be a no-go area. Putin is a spent force. He is going to be hunted for years to come. Russians’ avoidable deaths and more importantly avoidable distortions to world economic, sports, cultural, trade, and political systems will not be forgotten in a hurry. All the happenings are being recorded in coloured and by high-definition technological instruments.

Is there a way out of Putin’s Russian invasion of Ukraine? The strongman of Russia has become like a bull inside a chinaware shop, how-to guide him out of the shop without destroying everything inside the shop! He has been reported to have changed his goal of invading Ukraine. He no longer wants regime change! Who will take him at his word? He has been reported to have ‘assured’ leaders of States who had considered him a sane person by pleading with him to stay off war but to accept diplomacy, that he had no intention of invading Ukraine! The world now knows who Vladimir Putin is. There are already echoes of Putin’s boasting that “Sweden and Finland won’t join NATO either at his watch, adding that Russia will survive without the West, it is them who can’t survive without Russia” He was observed to have vowed.

A regime change in Putin’s Russia can be the ultimate answer. The wishes of the citizens of Russia are of secondary importance to Putin. He has made up his mind that he will prefer a new ‘Cold War’ international system where countries are divided along the West and East. Those nomenclatures have gradually been discarded for overlapping bilateral and multilateral relations.

TALIBAN RECOVERING POWER IN AFGHANISTAN: THE LIMITS OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION AND LESSONS FOR WARLORDS IN MULTI-ETHNIC COMPOSED STATE

Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

London. United Kingdom

patrickadelusi@jjassociates.org.uk

http://www.olufemiadelusi.blogspot.co.uk/

www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-olufemi-adelusi-a2139a76

I- ABSTRACT

20 years of America led a coalition of the US and her allies invasion of Afghanistan, to combat the forces that incubate the terrorist ISIS group led by Osama Bin Ladin that launched the 9/11 terror attack on the World Trade Centre in the US, as well as remove the obviously medieval fundamentalism practiced by the Taliban group, came abruptly to an end by US President Biden troops pulling out in the month of August 2021 without any consultation with coalition members; following former President Donald Trump’s earlier agreement with the Taliban to do so. Afghanistan can stand as a metaphor for multi-ethnic post-colonial States struggling to find their feet to become a Nation-State in all aspects. Before 2001, the Taliban conservative group co-founded by a cleric was the governing party in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has 34 provinces. The Taliban’s march on Kabul the capital of Afghanistan started with its occupation of 9 of the 34 provincial capitals. It later overran the whole province including the Capital Kabul by the 18^th of August 2021. This was a surprise to the whole world. The freed imprisoned Taliban soldiers by the invading Taliban fighters as well as those pardoned former Taliban Soldiers that were absorbed into the 300,000 Afghanistan Army certainly could have ensured the rout of the National Army paving easy access to the Taliban troops. Great Britain decided to evacuate her 4,000 citizens from Afghanistan with the help of its 600 troops. The United States too rushed back 3,000 troops to Shepperd the evacuation of her 6,000 citizens and Afghan interpreters to the US Armed Forces. There are indeed certain questions arising; Firstly, can the urge to have all American personnel back on US soil in time to mark the 20^th anniversary of 9/11 so that President Biden could take credit for closing the chapter be one of the determinant factors in the hasty Troops pull out? Secondly, Can the pressure of 2022 Mid-term Congress elections have posed by Trump’s misguided followers make the Republican Party candidates for these elections, a big consideration? and Thirdly, what role could the financial consequences of Covid-19 play in the implications of continued retention of US Troops in Afghanistan? and finally, what lessons can similar multi-ethnic State with preponderant Islamic population pick from Afghanistan and her Taliban overlords? To place our study properly, the issues arising will be looked at in 5 sections. The sections are Section 1- Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- National Interest and Limits of Foreign Intervention and Section IV- Lessons for War Lords in the Multi-Ethnic Composed States; and Section V- Conclusion.

II- INTRODUCTION

Hardly has the analysis started that information came in that 13 US soldiers and about 170 Afghans were killed by an ISIS Khorasan terrorist bomb at one of the gates to the Kabul Airport, Afghanistan on the 26^th day of 2021. What a mess!!! What a dangerous way of demonstrating the limits of foreign interventions. 20 years of America led a coalition of the US and her allies invasion of Afghanistan, to combat the forces that incubate the terrorist ISIS group led by Osama Bin Ladin that launched the 9/11 terror attack on the World Trade Centre in the US, as well as remove the obviously medieval fundamentalism practiced by the Taliban group, came abruptly to an end by US President Biden troops pulling out in the month of August 2021 without any consultation with coalition members; following former President Donald Trump’s earlier agreement with the Taliban to do so. Afghanistan can stand as a metaphor for multi-ethnic post-colonial States struggling to find their feet to become a Nation-State in all aspects. Before 2001, the Taliban conservative group co-founded by a cleric was the governing party in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has 34 provinces. The Taliban’s march on Kabul the capital of Afghanistan started with its occupation of 9 of the 34 provincial capitals. It later overran the whole province including the Capital Kabul by the 18^th of August 2021. This was a surprise to the whole world. The freed imprisoned Taliban soldiers by the invading Taliban fighters as well as those pardoned former Taliban Soldiers that were absorbed into the 300,000 Afghanistan Army certainly could have ensured the rout of the National Army paving easy access to the Taliban troops. Great Britain decided to evacuate her 4,000 citizens from Afghanistan with the help of its 600 troops. The United States too rushed back 3,000 troops to shepherd the evacuation of her 6,000 citizens and Afghan interpreters to the US Armed Forces.

There are indeed certain questions arising; Firstly, Can the urge to have all American personnel back on US soil by the end of the month of August 2021 in time to mark the 20^th anniversary of 9/11 so that President Biden could take credit for closing the chapter, be one of the determinant factors in the hasty Troops pull out? Secondly, Can the pressure of 2022 Mid-term Congress elections posed by Trump’s controlled followers make the Republican Party candidates for these elections, a big consideration? and Thirdly, what role could the financial consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic play in the implications of the continued retention of US Troops in Afghanistan? and finally, what lessons can similar multi-ethnic State with preponderant Islamic population pick from Afghanistan and her Taliban overlords? To place our study properly, the issues arising will be looked at in 4 sections. The sections are Section 1- Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- National Interest and Limits of Foreign Intervention; Section IV- Lessons for War Lords in the Multi-Ethnic Composed States; and Section V- Conclusion.

III- NATIONAL INTEREST AND LIMITS OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION

United States of America’s national interest in the Afghanistan case was motivated by the search for terrorists that bombed the World Trade Centre and the US Pentagon the Defence Building. The foreign intervention occasioned by this element of US national interest forced her occupation of Afghanistan for 20 years long, from 2001 to 2021. As a new administration under President Joe Biden came in January 2021; The US started to fulfill an earlier arrangement entered into with the Taliban group by the 45^th erratic US President Donald Trump. The pressure on the new US president was immense right from the campaign grounds. Our sons must be brought back home! To fulfill this landmine order laid by the most undemocratic US President in recent years, President Joe Biden called the bluff off the arrangement by hastening to bring all the US Troops, her citizens, and helpful interpreters home before the 20 years anniversary of September 11, 2001, terrorists attack the US.

History would be kind to US President Biden on his interpretation of the nexus between US National Interest and the overreached limits of foreign intervention. There are certain issues that came into play here. The pandemic of Covid19 as it later became known, as well as the consequences of combatting it. The consequences were two-fold. Namely, a large number of deaths from Covid 19 traceable to the incompetent and lying incumbent of the White House President Donald Trump, and secondly, the indebtedness occasioned by the search for and funding of the vaccines against the disease. Losing so many people to death in the hands of Covid 19 more than the US lost in all former battles or foreign interventions combined. This reality is too close to call for US President Biden. This incumbent President had the providence of having served a long time at the US Senate, while there, He served as a Senate member, later Chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. President Biden also served 2 terms as President Obama’s Vice President with a portfolio on foreign relations. In essence, President Biden is well versed in what constitutes the US National Interests and is worth defending outside her shores. He can be given the benefit of the doubt that the nexus between US National Interests under his watch and limitation to the US foreign interventions and particularly the Afghanistan case became real when the shadow of twisted minded former President Donald Trump is hovering around to perch on 2022 midterm elections to intoxicate the US political and electoral environment with his continued denial of the 2020 US Presidential elections! Bringing in the US Troops from Afghanistan before the 20^th anniversary of 20/11 is to take the wind out of the sails of Donald Trump's election campaigns for his approved and nominated candidates.

IV- LESSONS FOR WARLORDS IN MULTI-ETHNIC COMPOSED STATES

Multi-ethnic composed States have two opposing forces at work at every stage of their development. The centripetal and the centrifugal forces. Indeed, most of these States get organized into the Federal States either by earlier colonization or of necessity. Some others still cope with the rumblings within preferring to negotiate. It was revealed that the so-called Taliban in Afghanistan is composed of many warlords. The only common denominator for the prolonged cooperation and sustained fight was the US-led coalition occupation forces. Now with the price of regaining their country from the occupying forces, let the world be watching the transformation from rebel forces to a governing group.

Nigerian Federation put together by the British colonial power seems to be going through another of her seismic foundational challenges. The false ethnic tripod of Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba has been soul-searching and pulling the nominal federal system to actualizing the real Federal System. Reports are coming into the open now about the British manipulation of Nigeria’s first national Census of 1959 (Harold and Carol Smith on BBC Radio 4, Documents). That the said General Elections were contrived by the British Government.

The Hausas of the Northern region is now denying their colonization by the Fulani who later gave themselves a compound name as Hausa-Fulani. The truth of the matter is that the North East is inhabited by the Fulani, the North West is inhabited by the Hausa, while the Middle Belters refused to be referred to as the Northerners. There are now 3 Regions of the South; namely, South West inhabited by the Yoruba, the South East inhabited by the Igbos, and the South-South inhabited by the amalgams of the minority groups. In total, there seem to appear now 6 geopolitical regions as described above. Each time, a President or a Head of State put at the helms of affairs of the Federation called Nigeria derails in his management of the diversity issues holding up the country, War Lords appear to drum songs of self-determination of their respective ethnic groups.

The international community, the UN, and its veto-holding powers, former colonial powers have gotten a new reorientation following the consequences of the Pandemic Covid 19. War Lords can no longer rely on positive help, support and encouragement. Ethiopia versus Tigris situation is very fresh. Ethiopia has Tigris as part of her Federation before War Lords arose in the Tigris region of Ethiopia. What initially started as a police action has snowballed into a deadly civil war. The UN Humanitarian Mission to Ethiopia has been given an ultimatum to leave the territory of Ethiopia. The Mission has been accused of supporting Tigris against Ethiopia, thus making the efforts of the Federal troops come to naught. It has been observed that sooner than later, multi-ethnic composed States with foreign occupation troops supporting the governments against her opposing ethnic War Lords will experience the same treatment meted to Afghanistan by the US.

Round Table Negotiation on all points without any preconditions accepted and implemented by all the various ethnic groups. In short, the evolving an acceptable format of management of the diversities inherent in such multi-ethnic composed States by all concerned would seem a more sustainable and better option.

V- CONCLUSION

No force can overrun a determined people. The Taliban are Afghans. They have their sole interest in shaping their country in their own image, hard Muslim practices. They are not foreigners to Afghanistan. The US-led NATO forces had a goal which was to fish out the terrorists that intervened in the US through the 9/11 bombing and the spate of street bombings organized in NATO countries; this goal had been achieved by the 20^th year (2001-2021). It seems that the limit to such intervention has been underlined.

Covid 19 pandemic with the consequential high death rates first in the US and in the other NATO countries. The debt incurring expenditure on alleviation of the economic consequences of the Covid 19 Pandemic by all countries and more importantly the US and the NATO countries have led to a reordering of their priorities. Pulling out of troops from Afghanistan by the US falls under this dispensation. Foreign intervention to assist or fight insurgencies has been given a new format to reduce human loss and financial investment.

There is another limit to foreign interventions that are

often overlooked or downplayed or totally ruled as non-consequential, that is the deep-rooted cultural practices and beliefs of nations within States. The Euro-American Democratic credentials flaunting LGBT, freedom to be naked as an individual fashion expression, and individual human rights. Single motherhood is supportive of partnership instead of marriage and heritage systems to mention just a few. Many non-Euro-American democracies are often affirming their rights to differ from the diktat- democracy being forced upon or being mirrored as the ideal and the only definition of a just and adequate form of democratic practices. The debacle of the Taliban recovering power in their Country is but the expression of their right to differ in their definition of a system of governance. Ironically, the 45^th President of the United States President Donald Trump mirrored anything but the antithesis of the values close to the heart of the ancient democracies!!